Horowhenua and Wellington Region
Population Forecasts
Sense Partners have worked with the Wellington Regional Leadership Council Secretariat, Horowhenua District Council, and other councils in the greater Wellington region, to develop population forecasts in the region.
The forecasts include details on the age structures, household types and drivers of population change such as migration, births and deaths each year.
The forecasts are intended as an input to inform district plans and spatial planning. We provide a range of possible outcomes that capture uncertainty about the future.
Population
Between 2024 and 2056, the population is forecasted to rise by about 170,000 across the region.
In the short term population growth will be low, most notably in Wellington City where the population may not grow at all in the next 5 years.
Households
The average household size is forecasted to decrease slightly, while the overall number of households is set grow, particularly for the Alone and Couple categories
Ages
The population is getting older faster. Fewer births and lower immigration, in short term, mean fewer people under the age of 35. The number of people aged over 65 is growing rapidly.
Migration
The long shadow of COVID, rising debt and increasing unemployment means net international migration will be soft for a while. But it will rebound.
Domestic migration also declined significantly recently. This too should rebound in coming years.